Global and Thailand‘s Economic Scenarios in 2005
In 2005, countries around the world and Thailand have undergone situations and events in politics, economics and society, all of which impacted the overall economy. The spike in oil prices inevitably causes inflation. Thailand, as an oil importing country, has been severely slashed. Natural disasters happening in the world’s different parts have resulted in continual impacts since the end of 2004 till 2005, starting from the tsunami disaster which has plagued many parts of the world. New Orleans’ Katrina hurricane in USA, devastating earthquakes in Pakistan and India have recession economic and social growth and been in need recovery. This also includes an economic slow down and revenues from tourism. Dramatic weather changes in Russia, India and Pakistan, in winter in particular, have demanded a rising consumption in oil and natural gas; causing global continual soaring oil prices. These natural disasters, having direct impacts in those affected countries, are also expanding to other strategic countries.
As for the world’s economics in 2005, the US FEDERAL RESERVE indicates that the economic growth has slowed down due to one vital factor, i.e. continual rising oil prices. Despite the global economic growth at 4.3 %, according to figures presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the expansion is seen as solid to a certain level, though it faces a number of obstacles, i.e. pandemic, natural disasters, oil crisis and trade interferences in many countries-which have impacts on consumption growth in USA and Asia.
Regarding Thailand’s overall economic situation, the National Economics and Social Development Board (NESDB) reported that Thailand’s economy grew at 3.3 % in the first quarter, 4.6 % in the second, 5.3 % in the third. On a 9-month average, it rose to 4.4 %. That can be concluded that its economy was between 4.25-4.75 %, according to the figures from the Bank of Thailand. In addition, Thailand’s last two quarters encountered less trade deficits than in the first two, due to its exportability, resulting from major economic factors in 2005, e.g. continued export sectors in electronic, automotive and food industries; a slow down in oil prices and inflation at year’s end; trends in increasing interests seen as mitigating inflation pressure; slow down in imports of raw materials; increase in agricultural products, and recovered tourism would result in Thailand’s Money Supply better economic situation, especially at the end of 2005-not much different from that anticipated.
Global and Thailand’s economic scenarios in 2006
In 2006, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that countries around the world are still encountering risky factors expected to get even more serious-one of which is derived from imbalances in the global current accounts. Crude oil exporting countries’ limited potential in production and hoardings for speculations have continually fuelled a spike in oil prices. Political situation in a number of countries with possible impacts on productions and exports, drastically changing world climate, and greatly reduced temperature in different parts of the world reflect a growing demand for oil. In addition, the avian flu pandemic in Western Europe and Asia, no matter Turkey, China or Vietnam might impact the global economics, in particular; a delayed export of ready-made agricultural products from chickens or poultry. Tourism is also included. Expenses from the governmental sector to help relieve public welfare and sanitation, researches and developments to guard against diseases will fall into the red, rather than being used for production and export.
With the above risks, institutions like the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have forecast that the world’s economics in the next two years will still enjoy a continued growth, due to China’s and India’s economic expansion which represent a substantial Purchasing power. It is also predicted that the economics in Asian regions and North America will outrun other regions. As regards Asian and the Pacific Regions, including Thailand, the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific has predicted that 2006’s economics would be at a favorable gauge, i.e. at 6.2%, while inflation rate should fall down.
Forecasts from a number of various bodies have predicted that Thailand’s economics would still continuously grow, following that in 2005. The National Economics and Social Development Board (NESDB) estimate its growth in 2006 at 4.7-5.7 %, and the inflation rate at 3.5-4.5%. The Bank of Thailand estimates a 4.5-6% growth, and 3.5-5 % inflation rate, while the Fiscal Policy Office does at 5.5% growth and 3.9 % inflation rate. Overall, it looks bright. Nevertheless, major risky factors which might impact the 2006’s economics lie in oil prices, the avian flu pandemic, natural disasters and the Deep South’s unrest.
Given the above supporting and risky factors in 2006, it is believed that the government will take necessary measures to administer the target-promised policies. To start with, it campaigns for and supports the use of NGV gas and Gasohol to reduce the import of crude oil, as well as seek alternate energy. It promotes private sector investments to help fuel the country’s economics via a number of mega projects, tourism promotion, revenue generating schemes for agricultural sectors, and promotions of valued added agricultural products. Predictably, Thailand’s economics is considered to be on the rise.
Global and Thailand’s Postal Business in 2005 and Trends in 2006
In 2005, the global postal business has undergone major drastic developments and changes to cater for ever-changing facets in politics, economics, society, competitors, customers’ demand, technological advances, and, inevitably the globalization. Major among them are organization restructurings in different patterns, e.g. Japan’s postal privatization plan, postal acquisitions and mergers, strategic alliances either between postal administrations or between postal administrations and private sectors. This includes couriers, both major and small ones, in varied businesses, all of which focus on competitive advantages and business targets, i.e. catering for maximum profits and returns to stakeholders’ wealth. Global postal administrations, including Thailand’s Post, have endeavored to set up plans/business strategies to enable continued competitiveness. Overall, the Asian-Pacific witnesses the maximum growth, due to the regional high economic growth. As a result, mail acceptance increased accordingly. Financial expansion was boosted, promoting financial transactions to play a vital role in accepting and transferring money in other forms besides basic means offered by the post.
The above plans/strategies to develop and promote new services concentrate on basic services where revenues are derived, and that which make profits to THP, as well as making use of its existing channels and potential to maximize the service. This includes a customized service, especially that for major customers, together with ad hoc co -ordinations to governmental and private sectors, e.g.
a one-stop service of the Secretariat General of Civil Servant Development, Total Mail Solution- a service by which THP offers a full scale service starting from acceptance, folding, wrapping and addressing to delivery, and facelifts post offices. Internally, THP campaigns for the use of its brand to reinforce professionalism, reliability, and go-ahead image.
In 2006, THP still adheres to practiced guidelines to cater for ever-changing business-based economics. In order to help generate more revenue, THP reinvents its human resource deployment, and maximizes its potential in areas of personnel, buildings, property, tools, equipment, operating systems and networks. 4 major postal markets have the following trends:
1. Communication Market
This market is responsible for delivery of information and documents to one or more recipients.
- The current petrol crisis has swapped THP’s business in the communication market to expand, due to the fact that a number of governmental and private sectors tend to use postal services instead of making their own deliveries.
- Consumers’ behavior change, i.e. they switch from depositing small items to a bundled form, to save on service charges.
- Alternate services, in particular, e-services are in the limelight of individual and business units. These impacts on mail volume in the communication market, which is speed-constrained. Also, technology fees plummet.
- Due to increasing fierce competition, private operators, who formerly tended to business groups, resort to satisfying individual customers, who are relatively those using THP services.
2. Transport Market
This market is responsible for items/products in the form of packages.
- Results concluded from the Free Trade Areas-FTAs with foreign countries, though not directly impacting on the postal business, shall entail growth in transport and logistics markets, in parallel with the government’s policy to boost the logistics development.
- The petrol crisis encourages business operators to focus on Cost management, minimizing unnecessary expenses. Included is an improvement of services using modern technologies, e.g. introductions of Track and Trace system, global positioning system (GPS), radio frequency identification (RFID). Currently, THP, compared to private operators, is investment dependent.
- E-commerce, tending to grow continually, will result in increasing mail volume in the transport market, as deliveries of ordered products are still a must
3. Retail Market
This market includes services provided by service providers with coverage network in various areas, acting as agents.
- More expansions are seen among strategic alliance. THP is to optimize its potential as a professional postal service provider with nationwide network.
- THP places importance on quality services which are convenience-and speed-based. Longer office hours and renovative design of post offices to create customers’ confidence are initiated. Also included is an expansion of service points through any possible channels to reduce operation cost, i.e. franchises or agencies instead of its own branching out, especially in the country’ regions.
4. Financial Market
This market is responsible for financial collecting and transfer, as well as enabling financial convenience both to the general public and small businesses.
- Market value increases considerably, due to an expansion of financial agency service, and money acceptance and transfer which attract new more entrants from the governmental and private sectors. In addition, the development in high speed broadband allows faster financial transactions. With the consumers’ behavior being changed in favor of convenience, and longer office hours, emerging retail businesses permitting longer office hours, or even run round- the –clock, are becoming THP’s arch-rivals in the financial market, which results in a fiercer competition. Customers are contented with speed-based services with less complicated processes and competitively priced service charges.
- Other service operators in the financial market focus on building customer relationships to promote uninterrupted and continued use of service.
Besides the development in the above 4 markets to catch up with the changing competition and economic scenarios, THP is upgrading its post offices, attaching importance to THP brands and a campaign to serve customers with Thailand Post amenities. Committed to quality-promised services, with professional staff to make good impression with customers, THP expects its business to continue to grow and become one of Thailand’s leading state-enterprises that is self-sustainable, to the benefit of the country and people as a whole.
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